Asset allocation views from our senior investors


   

Global Asset Allocation Views 2Q19


Although recession risk is muted, we anticipate subtrend global growth in 2019. We slightly underweight stocks and overweight duration, taking cash back to neutral. The current environment supports carry a little more than capital growth. 

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Global Equity Views 1Q19
 


After a year of weak returns, we see an above-average level of opportunity across areas of global stock markets. By region our U.S. investors are the most optimistic as 2019 begins. Trade tensions and tariffs pose the main risk to equity markets.


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Global Fixed Income Views 1Q19


Our base-case remains Above Trend Growth, as tariff battles unfold against an otherwise strong global economy. We favor U.S. and European high yield and leveraged loans, short-duration securitized credit, emerging market debt.

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Multi-Asset Solutions: Income perspectives Q4 2018


Acknowledging the late cycle risks of increased volatility and divergent economic growth, we believe that it is prudent to reduce risk in our income portfolios at this time.




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Factor Views 1Q19
 


Factors remained stable despite a tumultuous quarter for risk assets. Though 2018 was broadly disappointing, we see potential catalysts in place across the equity, event-driven and macro spaces.



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Emerging Market Debt Strategy 1Q19


2018 was largely a US exceptionalism story, with the US economy enjoying above-trend growth even as recoveries elsewhere faded. The resulting environment of rising core rates, tighter financial conditions and US dollar strength was unfavourable for emerging markets.

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Emerging Market Equity Views 1Q19


Although global growth momentum has slowed, emerging market economies and markets remain firmly in mid cycle. When we consider the outlook for EM equities in 2019, we don’t worry about late-cycle constraints. Nor do we worry about valuations-after last year’s battering, valuations are quite attractive.


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Capital at risk

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Q1 2018: Factor Views

January 2018

 

While risk assets again posted strong gains, performance was mixed across factors. Looking ahead, we recognize the potential for positive catalysts across equity, event-driven, and macro factors.

 

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Q1 2018: Global Fixed Income Views

December 2017

 

Expecting strong growth and contained inflation over the near term, we see a gradual path to central bank normalization. If inflation picks up, our outlook could change. Among our best ideas: European bank capital, U.S. high yield, securitized credit.

 

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Q1 2018: Global Asset Allocation Views

December 2017

 

Amid strong growth and modest inflation, it’s a good environment for taking risk. But it is late cycle-no time for complacency. We take U.S. high yield down to neutral, keep a broad regional diversification in equities and a small underweight to duration.

 

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Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions (LTCMA) - 2018

December 2017

 

J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions help investors and advisers around the world make better strategic asset allocation decisions to achieve their long-term investment goals.

 

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The case for value in Europe

February 2017

 

The value style has had a strong rebound since the summer of 2016. However, this pick up in value returns follows a decade of underperformance vs. growth. When considered over the long term, value’s underperformance vs. growth is still significant.

 

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The first 100 days of the Trump Administration

January 2017

 

  • The inauguration of a Republican president, combined with Republican majorities in both houses of Congress will usher in a period of radical policy change in America. Most of these changes will impact the investment environment. However, in many cases, both the policy change itself and its investment implications will be shaped not only by campaign promises but by political, ideological and economic complications and by responses from the Federal Reserve and our trading partners.

 

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Rising inflation: Options to help protect your portfolio.

November 2016


  • Our 2017 Inflation rates are set to rise across the developed world. Rising inflation raises the bar for investment managers as clients require better returns just to stand still.
  • Inflation-linked government bonds can play a role in retro-fitting portfolios for the inflation challenge ahead.
  • Despite the coming increase, inflation will remain contained compared to previous inflationary periods, so it is important investors don’t overreact and pay too much for inflation protection.

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    Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions - 2017 Edition

    October 2016


    Our 2017 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions provide a consistent, cohesive set of estimates encompassing more than 50 asset and strategy classes, available in 10 base currencies. For 21 years investors and advisors have depended on our assumptions to inform their strategic asset allocation, build stronger portfolios and establish reasonable expectations for risks and returns over a 10- to 15-year time frame.
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    US Presidential Election 2016

    November 2016


    Access all our related publications and webconferences in one place and stay up-to date on the economic, financial market and global asset allocation implications of the vote.
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    Emerging Markets Equities. Follow-through on the earnings turn

    November 2016

     

    In the third quarter, emerging market earnings and earnings expectations cycles finally began to turn. Reported profits and margins rebounded off their cyclical lows and earnings estimates moved out of negative territory, diminishing a headwind that had weighed on performance from 2011 through 2015.

     

    Consensus economic growth projections for emerging markets began to rebound, widening the forward growth premium for emerging vs. developed markets.

     

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    Global Fixed Income Views

    January 2017


    • Since the Republican sweep of U.S. elections, expectations for higher growth and inflation have driven bond yields and equity prices to recent highs.
    • The change in sentiment portends a new trajectory for corporate investment and growth. The way has been paved for a raft of policy initiatives we expect to be implemented in short order.
    • We view the probability of Above Trend Growth as much higher than we did last quarter, supported by meaningful U.S. fiscal stimulus, and tax and regulatory reform; strong growth in two-thirds of the world’s economies; and an end to the deflationary effects of lower oil prices.

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      Emerging market debt strategy 4Q 2016: The recovery continues

      September 2016

       

      • Against expectations, emerging market (EM) debt sectors have performed strongly so far in 2016, both in absolute terms and relative to other asset classes. Although risks remain, our fundamental, quantitative valuation and technical analysis suggests that this period of outperformance can continue.
      • Improving fundamentals are helping to boost sentiment, with a pick-up in EM growth and a significant improvement in current account balances and foreign exchange reserves helping to attract flows into EM assets. Chinese economic concerns are also abating in the short term, although longer-term risks to the Chinese economy remain.
      • Valuations are supportive. Although yields and spreads have compressed this year, EM debt is still highly attractive to yield-hungry investors in relative terms, while EM currencies still look undervalued.
      • While improving fundamentals and attractive valuations are positive for the asset class, the technical backdrop remains the main driver of EM debt as easy global monetary policy conditions force a considerable proportion of the global government bond market into negative yield territory.
      • The key risks to this fairly sanguine outlook are political, with the U.S. presidential elections and the aftermath of the Brexit vote highest on the list of potential destabilising factors in the months ahead.

       

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      Highlights from the 4Q 2016 Asset Allocation Views

      September 2016

       

      • The growth outlook is improving and our base case envisions a “do no harm” Federal Reserve.
      • A steady dollar should underpin carry assets like credit.
      • We overweight U.S. and European high yield and emerging market debt. The U.S. remains our preferred equity market.
      • Negative stock-bond correlation continues to provide diversification benefits. An active approach remains a key portfolio goal.

       

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      Brexit - a shock for markets, or a crisis?

      June 2016

       

      Investors have been seriously wrong-footed by the result of the UK referendum. But the shock of City traders this morning is nothing compared with the stunned response of the people who thought they ran the country. The economic and political questions raised by this vote will not be answered for years, possibly decades. But the immediate questions for investors are how long the "risk-off" mood in markets will continue and how much damage it will do in the process.

       

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      Living in a less liquid world: The do’s and don’ts for bond investors

      June 2015

      Investors are confronted with a diminished supply of bond market liquidity, amid regulatory changes and reduced dealer inventories. At the same time, demand for liquidity has increased, as the share of the U.S. corporate bond market controlled by mutual funds and ETFs has nearly doubled since the financial crisis.


      Lack of liquidity does not trigger spikes in volatility; events do. Yet scarcer dealer liquidity and increased demand for it likely amplifies volatility once an event occurs. Even in a world of constrained bond liquidity, periods of high volatility are followed by periods of low volatility.


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      Greece - From stalemate into uncharted waters

      June 2015

      Market Bulletin


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      More clarity over UK government, but ongoing uncertainty for investors

      May 2015

      Investors have greeted the result of the UK general election with relief, because we don’t have the uncertain result that almost everyone expected. The overnight boost to equities, sterling and gilts is understandable and likely to be sustained in the short term. But it is important for investors in UK assets to realise that none of the factors that will do most to shape Britain’s medium-term outlook have been resolved by this surprisingly clear-cut result.


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      Bankers' Central: Updates from Mark Carney, Mario Draghi and Janet Yellen

      February 2015

      The European Central Bank: Hoping for high transmission

      European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi has confirmed the EUR 60 billion a month asset purchase programme previously announced in January. The ECB will continue its purchases of asset-backed securities and covered bonds, and will now start purchasing investment-grade securities issued by euro area governments, public agencies and European institutions in the secondary market. Draghi commented that the decision to act more extensively was due to the fact that “inflation in the euro area has been on a continuous downward trend” posing severe risks to the ECB main target of price stability. Draghi restated that the programme is intended to last until September 2016, but can be extended if inflation does not approach the target rate of 2%.


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      J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s Market Insights programme provides investors with a dependable source of timely market and economic insight. Now delivered in 25 countries and 10 languages around the world, Market Insights continues to be a key differentiator, providing clients with actionable market and economic perspective. The programme provides a complete framework of information, insight and commentary and is available in a variety of formats.

      Reports of the death of emerging markets convergence have been greatly exaggerated

      November 2014

      •  Scepticism over the ability of emerging markets (EM) to outpace the developed markets (DM) is growing, but ignores the long-term picture.
      •  The process of EM convergence with developed markets is not linear—and never has been.
      •  China’s economic growth is slowing down, but excluding the country from EM analysis is misguided.
      •  The long-term growth potential of EM remains firmly in place.
      •   
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      Emerging market debt outlook 4Q14

      November 2014

      Emerging market (EM) debt performance remains strong year-to-date, supported by well-anchored developed market (DM) rates.

      •  Global growth patterns continue to diverge between developed markets and within emerging markets as a group.
      •  Lower inflation expectations and reduced external imbalances in some emerging countries provide scope for supportive monetary policy.
      •  While market volatility will likely increase with the end of US Federal Reserve (Fed) tapering, liquidity should remain ample given continued injections from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ).
      •  We favour EM economies with a robust manufacturing base and strong trade linkages to the U.S., and sound balance sheets and the ability to absorb higher US interest rates.
      •   
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      Will this be the year that corporate Europe finally delivers on earnings?

      February 2015

      European Central Bank (ECB). Now that a sovereign quantitative easing (QE) programme has finally been delivered, there is an expectation that ECB asset purchases will continue to drive European markets higher. While QE provides a much-needed confidence boost in the near term, we would advise against simply applying the US experience to European equity markets. Instead, investors should continue to focus on fundamentals and on the ability of companies to deliver earnings growth in the year ahead. With European corporates just beginning to report fourth-quarter earnings, we look at how last quarter’s earnings shaped up and what might be in store for the coming year.


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      Emerging market debt outlook 3Q14

      June 2014

      Emerging market debt performed strongly across the board in the second quarter of 2014 (see Exhibit 1). Sovereign hard currency bonds performed best as the JPMorgan EMBI Global gained 5.4% quarter-on-quarter in USD terms. The index rose 9.1% in the first half of 2014. Corporate hard currency bonds posted solid returns in the second quarter and in the first half of the year, while local currency bonds gained momentum after a lacklustre first quarter.


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